Gas prices may have finally slipped to a one-year low — but they probably won’t stay down for long.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) latest’s monthly forecast predicts retail prices for regular gasoline will average $3.51 a gallon in 2023, down 10 cents from its previous outlook and below the $3.99 expected this year.

Yet even after tumbling by a third in recent months, prices remain 16% higher than last year and considerably more than prior to the pandemic. Diesel also is expected to remain near all-time highs next year.

Surging fuel prices helped ignite the fast inflation rate in four decades, and the new forecast dampens expectations that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates enough to tame it. While fuel accounts for just 8% of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), and economists tend to focus on “core” inflation data that strip out volatile energy and food costs, consumer and investors had hoped the recent pullback signaled a wider easing in price pressures throughout the economy.